Fact check: Trump makes progress on policy promises to Michigan. Will growth follow?

• Six months into term, President Donald Trump has made good on some promises to Michigan voters, but results are not yet known
• ‘Big, beautiful bill’ delivers tax cuts, but also will boost deficit, slash aid programs and stall green energy transition
• Immigration crackdown continues with new Michigan detention facility, but no promised end to Ukraine and Middle East conflicts 

It's been a big month for President Donald Trump, who recently signed into law what he called a “big, beautiful bill” that delivered on campaign promises to extend broad tax cuts and create new — albeit temporary — exemptions on income from tips and overtime.

The national economy has proven resilient amid Trump's new import taxes and continued tariff threats. And the US Supreme Court has knocked down some legal challenges to the president’s flurry of executive actions. 

But inflation is ticking up again, the Russia-Ukraine war has heated up and peace remains elusive in the Middle East.

Trump's new tax law is also poised to do something he said he would not: Cut federal spending on Medicaid, which is projected to mean 10 million fewer Americans with health care coverage by 2034, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

And Michigan, where Trump promised more jobs, lower prices and an economic "miracle" by the end of his term, the impact of the president's rapidly advancing policy agenda remains to be seen. 

While Trump is racking up legislative "wins," voters prefer to see "the results that were promised, not just policies," said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University.

“There is evidence that voters like politicians who keep their promises,” he said. 

Bridge Michigan is periodically reviewing the president's follow-through on the more than 100 promises he made to voters in the state during his winning 2024 campaign. Here is where things stand six months since Trump returned to the Oval Office: 

Economy and tariffs

Promise: Trump told Michigan voters he would “restore” the state’s auto jobs and that Michigan would be the “biggest” winner once tariffs were in place and manufacturers moved jobs back to the US. He also said inflation would get his immediate attention and fall quickly.

“We will quickly defeat it. We have to bring down prices. I will cut taxes, slash regulations, curb wasteful spending, and unleash energy production. It'll all happen very quickly,” he said Oct. 10 in Detroit. “This will rapidly drive prices down, lower interest rates, and put more money into the pockets of American consumers.”

Actions: Trump has levied tariffs, paused some and promised others. He has signed trade deals with the United Kingdom, Vietnam and Japan. He has announced more tariffs to come on Aug. 1 unless new deals are made. He has also signed executive orders calling for widespread deregulation, expanding the mining of crucial minerals and the production of fossil fuels. 

Results: The annual Inflation rate, which many economists believed would rise once tariff costs start hitting retail prices, was at 2.7% in June, an increase from 2.4% in May (but the same as the rate in November, when Trump was elected). Some economists say the June increase may not have been tariff-related but that further price increases are likely.

The nation’s jobless rate stands at 4.1% in June, with an increase in employment. It was at 4.2% on Election Day. Michigan’s jobless rate, meanwhile, is third highest in the nation behind Nevada and California. The rate stood at 5.3% in June, down from 5.4% in May but up from 5.2% in November.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer this month blamed “national economic turmoil”  — without naming Trump but mentioning his tariffs — for a company backing away from a $63 billion project near Flint that was expected to add 9,400 jobs with the help of more than $6 billion in Michigan incentives.

Whitmer later said she had talked to Trump about the failed project and he promised her he’d get “an even better deal” for the state.

The tariffs have already had a big impact on Michigan automakers.

• Stellantis, the Dutch-based company that owns the former Chrysler company, in June said that US tariffs cost it nearly $350 million in the first half of 2025.
• Ford’s CEO Jim Farley said a shortage of rare earth materials, caught up in the trade war with China, forced the company to close some auto plants. China temporarily halted export of the materials in reaction to Trump tariffs.
• GM announced this week that the tariffs cost the company $1 billion in the second quarter. The company has estimated a “$4 to $5 billion” impact this year. GM also said it will spend $4 billion to build more vehicles in the US to avoid tariffs, one of Trump’s stated goals for his trade stance. Part of that money — $900 million — is for production of a new V8 internal combustion engine for SUVs and larger pickups, a move made possible by GOP legislation removing some fuel economy standards.

Related:

• Trump gets his 'big, beautiful bill.' What it means for Michigan 
• Michigan rural hospitals at risk under Trump’s ‘beautiful’ bill, experts say 
• What the federal spending bill means for Michigan climate, EVs

Stock markets have plummeted in the wake of tariff threats — but also rebounded after the administration paused threatened tariffs or announced new trade deals. As of the close of the markets Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial average stood at 5.8% above Election Day levels and the S&P 500 was up 10.4%. The gains, however, are not widespread: The Russell 2000, a larger, more broad stock index, is up just 1.6%.

Immigration

Promise: Trump said he’d secure the border by halting migrants attempting to illegally cross in the US while launching “the largest deportation program of criminals in American history.” He said he’d invoke an 18th Century law to do so. “On day one, I will seal the border. I will stop the invasion,” Trump told a Howell audience in August.

Actions: The administration has dramatically increased deportation efforts and "expedited removals” at the border, stopping many trying to enter illegally, and across the nation in wide-ranging raids. He did invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which would grant sweeping powers to speed deportations.

Results: The US Supreme Court blocked the use of that law and sent the case back to a lower court. But the administration continues to arrest thousands each week to initiate deportations, some to foreign countries far from the US. But many non-criminals have been swept up in the raids as well and certain industries, particularly agriculture, have sought carve outs from the raids. Trump at first backed a pause in farm raids but then the administration reversed that decision. 

In Michigan, the administration is using a private detention facility for immigrants that would be the largest in the Midwest if fully utilized, possibly housing up to 1,800 people at the former prison in Lake County, 70 miles north of Grand Rapids. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem visited Michigan in June, telling residents the administration would not forget the northern border with Canada where she claimed fentanyl was flowing into the US. Fentanyl does cross the US-Canada border, but in minimal amounts when compared to the US-Mexico border.

In Michigan, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had deported nearly 500 people this year through June, according to public records obtained and published by the Deportation Data Project. Of those, 41% were convicted criminals, compared to 54% of the 33,586 people deported across the country.

A Detroit teen, Maykol Bogoya-Duarte, was arrested as he and friends were attempting to go on a field trip in May and later deported to Colombia, where he was from. The group had been stopped for alleged tailgating. He was in the US illegally. Maykol came to the U.S. when he was 16 and had already been going through a legal process to return to Colombia after receiving a final order of deportation in 2024.

Taxes

Promises: Besides talking about bringing jobs back to Michigan, Trump repeatedly used campaign speeches here to call for tax breaks on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits. He also said he’d push to make car-loan tax deductible for the purchase of American-built cars. “I will pass major tax cuts for workers, including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits for our seniors,” he told a group in Detroit in October.

Actions: Trump needed congressional help on these promises and got it in early July, when Vice President JD Vance broke a tie in the US Senate and approved the “big, beautiful bill” that had many of the tax breaks. The House narrowly agreed and Trump signed the bill into law on July 4.

Results: Many people will get a new tax break — or continue to get cuts  first authorized in Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which the legislation made permanent. 

Tipped employees will not pay federal income tax on the first $25,000 of tipped wages; up to $12,500 of overtime wages won’t be taxed (workers will still pay into Social Security and Medicare on those wages). Many seniors will get up to $6,000 in deductions to offset Social Security taxes. The biggest beneficiaries will be the wealthiest Americans. But the top quintile (20%) of income earners also pay 90% of all income taxes. The child tax credit was also increased from $2,000 to $2,200.

But the “cost” of the legislation will come over decades: It is expected to add at least $3 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade. It will lead to steep cuts in spending Medicaid — though scheduled to begin after the 2026 midterm elections — a program that provides health insurance to nearly 2.7 million Michiganders. And those cuts come after Trump had said he’d veto the bill if it cut Medicaid beyond “waste, fraud and abuse.”

The law will also cut billions of dollars in spending on federal food assistance programs that currently serve 1.5 million Michiganders. Nationally, an estimated 22 million families will likely lose some or all of their food benefits. 

It also includes $170 billion for immigration enforcement and $75 billion alone for the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. The US Defense Department is getting billions more too, including $25 billion to build a so-called “Golden Dome” to protect the US from incoming missiles.

Electric vehicles and energy

Promises: Trump said he’d cut the subsidies for new electric vehicles and end so-called mandates on EV production. He also said he’d take steps to expand the production of fossil fuels and cut energy costs in half within a year of taking office. 

Actions: The administration quickly rolled back the auto emission goals that would have accelerated the use of EV vehicles. The “big beautiful bill” slashed spending on “green” energy projects including wind and solar, along with electric vehicles. It also added tax breaks for the oil, gas and coal industry. 

Results: It's too soon to say, but experts have told Bridge that the law will likely slow utility investments in renewable energy and prolong their reliance on planet-warming fossil fuels while slowing EV transition plans. Some predict emissions and electricity costs will rise.

In April, the average cost of electricity in Michigan was 19.95 cents per kilowatt hour, up 3% from a year earlier, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Nationally, a gallon of gas costs $3.15, down 10% from $3.50 a year ago, according to AAA. Also, the turn back toward fossil fuels was a factor in GM’s decision to add production capacity of a V8 internal combustion engine (see above).

Peace and security

Promise: Trump has long complained about America’s “forever” wars and said he’d work to end conflict in the Middle East and in Ukraine. “We’re going to get peace in the Middle East” he said in Hamtramck in October. “I will end the war in Ukraine” he said in Grand Rapids on Election Day eve.

Actions: The Trump administration has sent envoys to negotiate with Ukraine and Russia. After moves seen as backing Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump has since agreed to send weapons to Ukraine and given Russia 50 days to get a ceasefire to avoid “100% tariffs.” 

In the Middle East, Trump has backed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has continued to wage attacks in Gaza, which Trump at one point had said would make for a good resort but then said it’d be a “freedom zone.” In June, Trump approved the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities after Israel had attacked Iran (and Iran shot missiles at Israel). European nations in NATO have agreed to spend more on the coalition's defense, another goal of Trump who has claimed NATO countries were taking advantage of the US by not paying enough and relying on US military might backed by US taxpayers.

Results: No resolution is in sight in either global hotspot. Some suggest the 50-day window given Russia could lead to stepped up attacks on Ukraine.

In the Middle East, a brief war between Israel and Iran has stopped for now after US airstrikes. But finding a workable resolution to the conflict in Gaza, started Oct. 7 when Hamas attacked and killed 1,200 in Israel, has proven more difficult. The succeeding invasion of Gaza by the Israeli military has left tens of thousands dead. Millions have been displaced and are facing “critical” levels of hunger.

In vitro fertilization treatments

Promise: Trump used a Michigan campaign speech in Potterville to declare that he would require insurance companies or the federal government would pick up the cost of in-vitro fertilization, an expensive procedure that allows some couples to have children.

Actions: In February Trump signed an executive order to begin a review of ways to lower costs for IVF treatment. It called for policy proposals within three months to make it happen.

Results: The White House Domestic Policy Council reportedly sent Trump a list of policy recommendations in mid-May, but the president has not yet announced any concrete steps to reduce IVF costs.