Gov. Snyder tied, or way ahead ‒ which poll is right in governor’s race?

To get a great glimpse at how widely polls can vary, you only need to look at Michigan’s governor’s race this past week.

Since Oct. 20, four polls have emerged. Two are nearly identical, calling the race either a slight lead for Republican Gov. Richard Snyder or a statistical tie. The others have Snyder leading by either 8 or nearly 6 points over Democrat Mark Schauer, though the latter was within the margin of error and the former was on the edge of the margin of error.

How could they vary so much?

The two that show the race to be tied were automated polls that have more Democrats within their samples or showed higher Schauer support among Democrats. Either could have produced the seemingly closer race. The others, by EPIC MRA for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV, Channel 7 Detroit, and by Glengariff Group Inc. for The Detroit News and WDIV Channel 4 Detroit, were conducted by live interviewers and include samples that contained fewer self-identified Democrats.

Let’s look at them one by one:

All four polls had samples which included more Democrats than Republicans. But the EPIC MRA and Glengariff polls had the gap at 4 percentage points while the PPP poll stretched to 8 points and the Mitchell was at 4.6 points.

So with less than two weeks to the election, the polls don’t agree. Three have Snyder and Schauer within the margin of error, and the fourth showing Snyder with a comfortable lead.

What makes the differences so odd, is that for all their stark differences in the governor’s race, all four polls seem to agree that Democrat U.S. Rep. Gary Peters has a big lead over former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land in the race for U.S. Senate. EPIC MRA has Peters with a 9 point lead; Mitchell has it pegged at 13 points; PPP at 14 and Glengariff at 15 points.

As for who’s right, we’ll know Nov. 4.

Facts matter. Trust matters. Journalism matters.

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Illusive Man
Tue, 10/28/2014 - 2:26pm
I can't imagine that Snyder's running 20 points ahead of Land, I'd go with tie/Snyder up 2
Fri, 10/31/2014 - 3:57am
Schauer is going to win this because he has the GOTV and he has the momentum. I know the media in Michigan desperately wants Snyder to win but he's been a terrible governor. He has raised taxes on the middle class to dole out huge tax cuts to his corporate cronies and to his cousin and he has slashed billions in public education spending. This has damaged the middle class and we will send him packing. He does not deserve re-election and Michigan deserves better than what he has inflicted on us.
Fri, 10/31/2014 - 12:16pm
I agree with Patti, the damage Snyder has done to the middle class is abhorrent. If I really wanted to scare people this Halloween, a "One Dumb Nerd" mask ought to do it. Taxing pensioners, tax cuts to companies moving out of Michigan, cutting education spending, and passing the "Right to Work For Less" legislation should get him sent packing. There's no telling how much damage he could do during a term limited lame duck term.
Dan Betlej
Sun, 11/02/2014 - 2:13pm
I am glad that the polls show a dead heat. I do not understand how many people would want more of Snyder? This CRAP that Snyder claims to NOT be a politician and being a nerd? A very corrupt and money grubbing political official named Snyder is responsible for raising taxes on middle class and seniors pensions. That same individual rammed "Right To Work" down this state's throat! It is very clear that one of the Republican's goals is to break unions. ALL UNIONS! This same NERD CUT 1 BILLION $$$$$$$$$$ from EDUCATION in Michigan. Now that same nerd is lying by having people make ads stating he increased funding to schools. He increased funding of charter schools and this is because this nerd wants to privatize schools and have corporations run education. You have different Republicans around our state claiming they want to improve eco tourism BUT these are the same people working real hard to cut wages by breaking unions. Peter Pettalia is one of those republicans. Mr. Snyder and Pettalia the two of you are money grubbing thieves that rob everyone to give the rich even more. Cutting education, wages, breaking unions and raising taxes on seniors and middle class while giving millions of breaks and advantages to the wealthy makes it clear that you want to turn our country into a third world nation. We're sick of your lies, deceit and we're going to vote you OUT OF OFFICE on Tues 11/4/2014. PLEASE everyone and get out and VOTE!!!
Fri, 11/07/2014 - 10:13am
These comments are all one needs to know about this website's/organization's political slant. SLAM DUNK