Michigan early voting returns heaviest so far in Democratic counties

Republicans, who in the past have employed a robust absentee voting program to get supporters to cast ballots, aren’t taking advantage of no-reason absentee voting like their Democratic peers. Experts say that’s a result of President Donald Trump publicly deriding the practice. (Bridge photo by Riley Beggin)

Michigan’s most Democratic counties are among those that have returned the most absentee ballots so far in an election that is shattering turnout records, according to a Bridge analysis of state records.

 

That may bolster Democrats’ hope for a big year up and down the ballot, as counties that favored Democrat Hillary Clinton in her 2016 presidential campaign are disproportionately returning ballots. 

Experts caution that doesn't mean GOP voters won’t turn out in huge numbers to vote in person on Election Day, Nov. 3.

“Republicans are putting all their marbles on Election Day right now,” said Richard Czuba, founder of polling firm Glengariff Group. 

“But because of the passage of the 2018 constitutional amendment allowing no-reason absentee, the game has shifted. Every day for 30 days prior has been an Election Day in Michigan, and Republicans are banking on one day when Democrats have been working — as we see in these absentee numbers — on every day of the election.”

 

State election officials predict Michigan could break the record of 5 million votes set in 2008, and two-thirds of those votes could be by mail.

More than 1.5 million people have already voted absentee, half of the 3 million people who have requested ballots so far. 

“I believe this is a hopeful story. It’s not a partisan story, we see citizens on both sides of the aisle taking advantage of these opportunities and that’s really a great thing,” Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told reporters Tuesday. 

What the numbers show

Bridge’s analysis shows that about 60 percent of the ballots returned through Monday came from eight counties that Clinton won in 2016, nearly 900,000 of the 1.5 million ballots.

Of the 19 counties where Republican President Trump got 65 percent of the vote or more in 2016, 14.6 percent of registered voters have returned a mail-in ballot.

In the counties Clinton won, the return rate is 20.8 percent.

And in Detroit, which favored Clinton by 95 percent of the vote in 2016, 73,000 voters — nearly half of those who sought ballots — have already returned them.

The heaviest voting, of course, largely aligns with the state’s population centers, but pollsters from both parties told Bridge the results reflect what they are seeing statewide.

Steve Mitchell, a Republican pollster, said he’s found that 70 percent of voters who have returned absentee ballots indicate they are voting for Democrat Joe Biden. Those planning to vote on Election Day favor Trump 55 percent to 33 percent, Mitchell said.

Mark Grebner, a Democratic consultant, said Democrats are generally more likely to vote absentee regardless of where they live, but “as to how that affects the ultimate outcome of the election, I don’t know if it will.”

The GOP has traditionally had an “extraordinary” mail-in voting program in Michigan for decades, Czuba said. Senior citizens are more likely to vote Republican, and the party had a robust “chase program” to ensure those voters mailed in their ballots. 

However, Trump has consistently derided mail-in voting throughout the election season, saying without proof that they will contribute to widespread voter fraud. That makes it harder for the Republican Party to leverage their existing operation to take advantage of the expanded rights. 

“It’s a huge missed opportunity,” said Dennis Darnoi, a GOP political consultant who also tracks absentee ballots closely and is seeing similar trends. 

“From the Republican standpoint, it’s a shame because they do have a robust AVB program here in the state and to leave it on the sideline in this race, especially when he needs to win this state, I think was a serious miscalculation.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are more likely to vote by mail because of the coronavirus pandemic and a 2018 constitutional amendment  allowing no-reason absentee voting.

Stock up on coffee

Czuba and others caution that both Democrats and Republicans are eager to vote, and record turnout means there could be many first-time voters.

“I don’t think anybody can quite say for certainty who those extra people are coming into the system,” Czuba said. “There are a lot of unknowns with a turnout of this size.”

Political observers should “stock up on coffee” because it takes longer to process and count absentee ballots than in-person ballots, said Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum. 

Initial results are likely to reflect a Republican lead from those in-person votes that are tabulated faster, while the count of absentee votes trickle in, slowly turning the results more Democratic. 

“Then you’re going to get all kinds of conspiracy theories that the race is being stolen,” Mitchell said. 

But voters should be prepared to wait for an accurate picture of election results, Byrum said. 

Facts matter. Trust matters. Journalism matters.

If you learned something from the story you're reading please consider supporting our work. Your donation allows us to keep our Michigan-focused reporting and analysis free and accessible to all. All donations are voluntary, but for as little as $1 you can become a member of Bridge Club and support freedom of the press in Michigan during a crucial election year.

Pay with VISA Pay with MasterCard Pay with American Express Donate now

Comment Form

Add new comment

Dear Reader: We value your thoughts and criticism on the articles, but insist on civility. Criticizing comments or ideas is welcome, but Bridge won’t tolerate comments that are false or defamatory or that demean, personally attack, spread hate or harmful stereotypes. Violating these standards could result in a ban.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

Comments

Greg
Tue, 10/20/2020 - 6:55pm

Unfortunately, half of those votes will be thrown out because people can't read simple directions.

MW
Wed, 10/21/2020 - 8:55am

Fortunately Michigan passed a law requiring clerks to contact voters if they forgot to sign their envelope or if their signature doesn't match the one on file. Plus you can check your ballot status at to see if they received it: https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/Voter/index

realscience
Wed, 10/21/2020 - 1:56pm

will 1/2 be thrown out as duplicates?

I call BS
Thu, 10/22/2020 - 12:20pm

No.

Any other questions?

realscience
Wed, 10/21/2020 - 1:55pm

Funny how in the very first paragraph the writer already says it's bad news for Trump and the Republicans. I thought Bridge was supposed to be non biased.

MW
Thu, 10/22/2020 - 10:00am

Did you actually read the article because it doesn't say that.

Saying: "counties that favored Democrat Hillary Clinton in her 2016 presidential campaign are disproportionately returning ballots." is an unbiased and verifiable fact. Pointing out that: "Trump has consistently derided mail-in voting throughout the election season, saying without proof that they will contribute to widespread voter fraud. That makes it harder for the Republican Party to leverage their existing operation to take advantage of the expanded rights. " is also an unbiased and verifiable fact.

Why is every fact that can be interpreted as painting the GOP/Trump in a negative light considered biased? If you want news that avoids any information that might make Trump or the GOP look bad, stick to biased sources like Fox News, Breitbart, or any other pro-Trump news outlet. The rest of us appreciate Bridge's unbiased reporting.

Todd Priest
Thu, 10/22/2020 - 12:11pm

Ha! Ha! These are the same as the rest of the liberal hacks we see trying to hide news and such. Journalism is dead and that was verified this week when they started making up Russian conspiracies again.

It's math
Thu, 10/22/2020 - 12:21pm

Is it a mystery which counties vote for Democrats? Where is the bias?

Todd Priest
Thu, 10/22/2020 - 12:09pm

We aren't hiding under our beds and want our votes to count so bet on it. We will be there come the third. Meanwhile we will be reading more stories of how many democrat votes were disqualified and lost. Trump 2020!

Ben
Thu, 10/29/2020 - 4:05pm

Your article fails to mention republicans hold a 41-39 lead in returned ballots. 20% are independent ballots and trump won 65% of independents in ‘16 in Michigan. Biden likely has a 2% bump in cross party voting, but as your article mentioned, Trump voters heavily favor voting on Election Day. Polls showing Biden up 7-10 points aren’t right by that math. This race will come down to the wire again like in ‘16.